Estimating the size of populations at risk for malaria: a case study in cattle herders and agricultural workers in Northern Namibia.

Cattle herders and agricultural workers have been identified has key high-risk populations for malaria in northern Namibia. Population size estimates for these groups are lacking but are important for planning, monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of targeted strategies towards malaria elimination in the region. In this analysis, we extend population size estimation methods routinely used in HIV research, specifically social mapping and multiple source capture-recapture, to the context of malaria to estimate how many cattle herders and agricultural workers lived in two regions of northern Namibia over the course of the 2019-2020 malaria season. Both methods estimated two to three times more agricultural workers than cattle herders but size estimates based on the multiple source capture-recapture method were two to three times greater than the mapping-based, highlighting important methodological considerations to apply such methods to these highly mobile populations. In particular, we compared open versus closed populations assumptions for the capture-recapture method and assessed the impact of sensitivity analyses on the procedure to link records across multiple data sources on population size estimates. Our results are important for national control programs to target their resources and consider integrating routine population size estimation of high risk populations in their surveillance activities.

Insecticide susceptibility status of Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes and the effect of pre-exposure to a piperonyl butoxide (PBO) synergist on resistance to deltamethrin in northern Namibia.

BACKGROUND: Pyrethroid-based indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have been employed as key vector control measures against malaria in Namibia. However, pyrethroid resistance in Anopheles mosquitoes may compromise the efficacy of these interventions. To address this challenge, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends the use of piperonyl butoxide (PBO) LLINs in areas where pyrethroid resistance is confirmed to be mediated by mixed function oxidase (MFO). METHODS: This study assessed the susceptibility of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) mosquitoes to WHO tube bioassays with 4% DDT and 0.05% deltamethrin insecticides. Additionally, the study explored the effect of piperonyl butoxide (PBO) synergist by sequentially exposing mosquitoes to deltamethrin (0.05%) alone, PBO (4%) + deltamethrin (0.05%), and PBO alone. The Anopheles mosquitoes were further identified morphologically and molecularly. RESULTS: The findings revealed that An. gambiae sensu stricto (s.s.) (62%) was more prevalent than Anopheles arabiensis (38%). The WHO tube bioassays confirmed resistance to deltamethrin 0.05% in the Oshikoto, Kunene, and Kavango West regions, with mortality rates of 79, 86, and 67%, respectively. In contrast, An. arabiensis displayed resistance to deltamethrin 0.05% in Oshikoto (82% mortality) and reduced susceptibility in Kavango West (96% mortality). Notably, there was reduced susceptibility to DDT 4% in both An. gambiae s.s. and An. arabiensis from the Kavango West region. Subsequently, a subsample from PBO synergist assays in 2020 demonstrated a high proportion of An. arabiensis in Oshana (84.4%) and Oshikoto (73.6%), and 0.42% of Anopheles quadriannulatus in Oshana. Non-amplifiers were also present (15.2% in Oshana; 26.4% in Oshikoto). Deltamethrin resistance with less than 95% mortality, was consistently observed in An. gambiae s.l. populations across all sites in both 2020 and 2021. Following pre-exposure to the PBO synergist, susceptibility to deltamethrin was fully restored with 100.0% mortality at all sites in 2020 and 2021. CONCLUSIONS: Pyrethroid resistance has been identified in An. gambiae s.s. and An. arabiensis in the Kavango West, Kunene, and Oshikoto regions, indicating potential challenges for pyrethroid-based IRS and LLINs. Consequently, the data highlights the promise of pyrethroid-PBO LLINs in addressing resistance issues in the region.

Defining operational research priorities to improve malaria control and elimination in sub-Saharan Africa: results from a country-driven research prioritization setting process.

BACKGROUND: In order to reignite gains and accelerate progress toward improved malaria control and elimination, policy, strategy, and operational decisions should be derived from high-quality evidence. The U.S. President's Malaria Initiative (PMI) Insights project together with the Université Cheikh Anta Diop of Dakar, Senegal, conducted a broad stakeholder consultation process to identify pressing evidence gaps in malaria control and elimination across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and developed a priority list of country-driven malaria operational research (OR) and programme evaluation (PE) topics to address these gaps. METHODS: Five key stakeholder groups were engaged in the process: national malaria programmes (NMPs), research institutions in SSA, World Health Organization (WHO) representatives in SSA, international funding agencies, and global technical partners who support malaria programme implementation and research. Stakeholders were engaged through individual or small group interviews and an online survey, and asked about key operational challenges faced by NMPs, pressing evidence gaps in current strategy and implementation guidance, and priority OR and PE questions to address the challenges and gaps. RESULTS: Altogether, 47 interviews were conducted with 82 individuals, and through the online survey, input was provided by 46 global technical partners. A total of 33 emergent OR and PE topics were identified through the consultation process and were subsequently evaluated and prioritized by an external evaluation committee of experts from NMPs, research institutions, and the WHO. The resulting prioritized OR and PE topics predominantly focused on generating evidence needed to close gaps in intervention coverage, address persistent challenges faced by NMPs in the implementation of core strategic interventions, and inform the effective deployment of new tools. CONCLUSION: The prioritized research list is intended to serve as a key resource for informing OR and PE investments, thereby ensuring future investments focus on generating the evidence needed to strengthen national strategies and programme implementation and facilitating a more coordinated and impactful approach to malaria operational research.

Cost and cost effectiveness of reactive case detection (RACD), reactive focal mass drug administration (rfMDA) and reactive focal vector control (RAVC) to reduce malaria in the low endemic setting of Namibia: an analysis alongside a 2×2 factorial design cluster randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the cost and cost effectiveness of reactive case detection (RACD), reactive focal mass drug administration (rfMDA) and reactive focal vector control (RAVC) to reduce malaria in a low endemic setting. SETTING: The study was part of a 2×2 factorial design cluster randomised controlled trial within the catchment area of 11 primary health facilities in Zambezi, Namibia. PARTICIPANTS: Cost and outcome data were collected from the trial, which included 8948 community members that received interventions due to their residence within 500 m of malaria index cases. OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) per in incident case averted. ICER per prevalent case and per disability-adjusted life years (DALY) averted were secondary outcomes, as were per unit interventions costs and personnel time. Outcomes were compared as: (1) rfMDA versus RACD, (2) RAVC versus no RAVC and (3) rfMDA+RAVC versus RACD only. RESULTS: rfMDA cost 1.1× more than RACD, and RAVC cost 1.7× more than no RAVC. Relative to RACD only, the cost of rfMDA+RAVC was double ($3082 vs $1553 per event). The ICERs for rfMDA versus RACD, RAVC versus no RAVC and rfMDA+RAVC versus RACD only were $114, $1472 and $842, per incident case averted, respectively. Using prevalent infections and DALYs as outcomes, trends were similar. The median personnel time to implement rfMDA was 20% lower than for RACD (30 vs 38 min per person). The median personnel time for RAVC was 34 min per structure sprayed. CONCLUSION: Implemented alone or in combination, rfMDA and RAVC were cost effective in reducing malaria incidence and prevalence despite higher implementation costs in the intervention compared with control arms. Compared with RACD, rfMDA was time saving. Cost and time requirements for the combined intervention could be decreased by implementing rfMDA and RAVC simultaneously by a single team. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02610400; Post-results.

Community acceptance of reactive focal mass drug administration and reactive focal vector control using indoor residual spraying, a mixed-methods study in Zambezi region, Namibia.

BACKGROUND: In Namibia, as in many malaria elimination settings, reactive case detection (RACD), or malaria testing and treatment around index cases, is a standard intervention. Reactive focal mass drug administration (rfMDA), or treatment without testing, and reactive focal vector control (RAVC) in the form of indoor residual spraying, are alternative or adjunctive interventions, but there are limited data regarding their community acceptability. METHODS: A parent trial aimed to compare the effectiveness of rfMDA versus RACD, RAVC versus no RAVC, and rfMDA + RAVC versus RACD only. To assess acceptability of these interventions, a mixed-methods study was conducted using key informant interviews (KIIs) and focus group discussions (FGDs) in three rounds (pre-trial and in years 1 and 2 of the trial), and an endline survey. RESULTS: In total, 17 KIIs, 49 FGDs were conducted with 449 people over three annual rounds of qualitative data collection. Pre-trial, community members more accurately predicted the level of community acceptability than key stakeholders. Throughout the trial, key participant motivators included: malaria risk perception, access to free community-based healthcare and IRS, and community education by respectful study teams. RACD or rfMDA were offered to 1372 and 8948 individuals in years 1 and 2, respectively, and refusal rates were low (< 2%). RAVC was offered to few households (n = 72) in year 1. In year 2, RAVC was offered to more households (n = 944) and refusals were < 1%. In the endline survey, 94.3% of 2147 respondents said they would participate in the same intervention again. CONCLUSIONS: Communities found both reactive focal interventions and their combination highly acceptable. Engaging communities and centering and incorporating their perspectives and experiences during design, implementation, and evaluation of this community-based intervention was critical for optimizing study engagement.

Regional initiatives for malaria elimination: Building and maintaining partnerships.

Andrew Lover and colleagues discuss regional malaria initiatives, the strengths and challenges.

The central role of national programme management for the achievement of malaria elimination: a cross case-study analysis of nine malaria programmes.

BACKGROUND: A malaria eradication goal has been proposed, at the same time as a new global strategy and implementation framework. Countries are considering the strategies and tools that will enable progress towards malaria goals. The eliminating malaria case-study series reports were reviewed to identify successful programme management components using a cross-case study analytic approach. METHODS: Nine out of ten case-study reports were included in the analysis (Bhutan, Cape Verde, Malaysia, Mauritius, Namibia, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Turkmenistan). A conceptual framework for malaria elimination programme management was developed and data were extracted and synthesized. Findings were reviewed at a consultative workshop, which led to a revision of the framework and further data extraction and synthesis. Success factors of implementation, programme choices and changes, and enabling factors were distilled. RESULTS: Decentralized programmes enhanced engagement in malaria elimination by sub-national units and communities. Integration of the malaria programme into other health services was also common. Decentralization and integration were often challenging due to the skill and experience levels of newly tasked staff. Accountability for programme impact was not clarified for most programmes. Motivation of work force was a key factor in maintaining programme quality but there were few clear, detailed strategies provided. Different incentive schemes targeted various stakeholders. Training and supervision, although not well described, were prioritized by most programmes. Multi-sectoral collaboration helped some programmes share information, build strategies and interventions and achieve a higher quality of implementation. In most cases programme action was spurred by malaria outbreaks or a new elimination goal with strong leadership. Some programmes showed high capacity for flexibility through introduction of new strategies and tools. Several case-studies described methods for monitoring implementation quality and coverage; however analysis and feedback to those implementing malaria elimination in the periphery was not well described. Political commitment and sustained financing contributed to malaria programme success. Consistency of malaria programmes depends on political commitment, human and financial resources, and leadership. Operational capacity of the programme and the overall health system structure and strength are also important aspects. CONCLUSIONS: Malaria eradication will require adaptive, well-managed malaria programmes that are able to tailor implementation of evidence-based strategies, founded upon strong sub-national surveillance and response, with adequate funding and human resources.

Strategies and approaches to vector control in nine malaria-eliminating countries: a cross-case study analysis.

BACKGROUND: There has been progress towards malaria elimination in the last decade. In response, WHO launched the Global Technical Strategy (GTS), in which vector surveillance and control play important roles. Country experiences in the Eliminating Malaria Case Study Series were reviewed to identify success factors on the road to elimination using a cross-case study analytic approach. METHODS: Reports were included in the analysis if final English language draft reports or publications were available at the time of analysis (Bhutan, Cape Verde, Malaysia, Mauritius, Namibia, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Turkmenistan). A conceptual framework for vector control in malaria elimination was developed, reviewed, formatted as a matrix, and case study data was extracted and entered into the matrix. A workshop was convened during which participants conducted reviews of the case studies and matrices and arrived at a consensus on the evidence and lessons. The framework was revised and a second round of data extraction, synthesis and summary of the case study reports was conducted. RESULTS: Countries implemented a range of vector control interventions. Most countries aligned with integrated vector management, however its impact was not well articulated. All programmes conducted entomological surveillance, but the response (i.e., stratification and targeting of interventions, outbreak forecasting and strategy) was limited or not described. Indoor residual spraying (IRS) was commonly used by countries. There were several examples of severe reductions or halting of IRS coverage and subsequent resurgence of malaria. Funding and operational constraints and poor implementation had roles. Bed nets were commonly used by most programmes; coverage and effectiveness were either not measured or not articulated. Larval control was an important intervention for several countries, preventing re-introduction, however coverage and impact on incidence were not described. Across all interventions, coverage indicators were incomparable, and the rationale for which tools were used and which were not used appeared to be a function of the availability of funding, operational issues and cost instead of evidence of effectiveness to reduce incidence. CONCLUSIONS: More work is required to fill gaps in programme guidance, clarify the best methods for choosing and targeting vector control interventions, and support to measure cost, cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit of vector surveillance and control interventions.

Namibia's path toward malaria elimination: a case study of malaria strategies and costs along the northern border.

BACKGROUND: Low malaria transmission in Namibia suggests that elimination is possible, but the risk of imported malaria from Angola remains a challenge. This case study reviews the early transition of a program shift from malaria control to elimination in three northern regions of Namibia that comprise the Trans-Kunene Malaria Initiative (TKMI): Kunene, Omusati, and Ohangwena. METHODS: Thirty-four key informant interviews were conducted and epidemiological and intervention data were assembled for 1995 to 2013. Malaria expenditure records were collected for each region for 2009, 2010, and 2011, representing the start of the transition from control to elimination. Interviews and expenditure data were analyzed across activity and expenditure type. RESULTS: Incidence has declined in all regions since 2004; cases are concentrated in the border zone. Expenditures in the three study regions have declined, from an average of $6.10 per person at risk per year in 2009 to an average of $3.61 in 2011. The proportion of spending allocated for diagnosis and treatment declined while that for vector control increased. Indoor residual spraying is the main intervention, but coverage varies, related to acceptability, mobility, accessibility, insecticide stockouts and staff shortages. Bed net distribution was scaled up beginning in 2005, assisted by NGO partners in later years, but coverage was highly variable. Distribution of rapid diagnostic tests in 2005 resulted in more accurate diagnosis and can help explain the large decline in cases beginning in 2006; however, challenges in personnel training and supervision remained during the expenditure study period of 2009 to 2011. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to allocating sufficient human resources to vector control activities, developing a greater emphasis on surveillance will be central to the ongoing program shift from control to elimination, particularly in light of the malaria importation challenges experienced in the northern border regions. While overall program resources may continue on a downward trajectory, the program will be well positioned to actively eliminate the remaining foci of malaria if greater resources are allocated toward surveillance efforts.

The challenge of artemisinin resistance can only be met by eliminating Plasmodium falciparum malaria across the Greater Mekong subregion.

Artemisinin-based combinations are currently the most effective anti-malarials and, in addition to vector control, have led to significant declines in malaria morbidity and mortality. However, foci of artemisinin drug resistance have been identified in the Greater Mekong subregion (GMS) of the Asia Pacific, threatening the major gains made in malaria control and potentially creating a parasite pool that is more difficult to treat and eliminate. Efforts are underway to halt the spread of artemisinin resistance, including coordination of activities and funding, and identification of areas of suspected artemisinin resistance, now using a newly identified molecular marker. However, targeting resources to the containment of resistant parasites is likely inefficient and monitoring impact is challenging. A more sustainable solution is the rapid elimination of all Plasmodium falciparum parasites from the GMS. This strategy is more efficient for several reasons. First, a subregional strategy is in line with current commitment to elimination and will build upon the existing national political support for elimination as well as enhancing collaboration among countries. Second, the challenge of human mobility in the GMS is subregional in scope and requires a harmonized elimination strategy. Third, countries will need to improve and intensify malaria operations to reach elimination, and this will be a singular goal across the subregion. Rallying around the goal of P. falciparum elimination will not only utilize existing regional bodies to catalyze political and funding support, but will also leverage the funding already in place to achieve this subregional goal.

Eliminating malaria in Malaysia: the role of partnerships between the public and commercial sectors in Sabah.

BACKGROUND: Countries in the Asia Pacific region have made great progress in the fight against malaria; several are rapidly approaching elimination. However, malaria control programmes operating in elimination settings face substantial challenges, particularly around mobile migrant populations, access to remote areas and the diversity of vectors with varying biting and breeding behaviours. These challenges can be addressed through subnational collaborations with commercial partners, such as mining or plantation companies, that can conduct or support malaria control activities to cover employees. Such partnerships can be a useful tool for accessing high-risk populations and supporting malaria elimination goals. METHODS: This observational qualitative case study employed semi-structured key informant interviews to describe partnerships between the Malaysian Malaria Control Programme (MCP), and private palm oil, rubber and acacia plantations in the state of Sabah. Semi-structured interview guides were used to examine resource commitments, incentives, challenges, and successes of the collaborations. RESULTS: Interviews with workers from private plantations and the state of Sabah MCP indicated that partnerships with the commercial sector had contributed to decreases in incidence at plantation sites since 1991. Several plantations contribute financial and human resources toward malaria control efforts and all plantations frequently communicate with the MCP to help monitor the malaria situation on-site. Management of partnerships between private corporations and government entities can be challenging, as prioritization of malaria control may change with annual profits or arrival of new management. CONCLUSIONS: Partnering with the commercial sector has been an essential operational strategy to support malaria elimination in Sabah. The successes of these partnerships rely on a common understanding that elimination will be a mutually beneficial outcome for employers and the general public. Best practices included consistent communication, developing government-staffed subsector offices for malaria control on-site, engaging commercial plantations to provide financial and human resources for malaria control activities, and the development of new worker screening programmes. The successes and challenges associated with partnerships between the public and commercial sector can serve as an example for other malaria-eliminating countries with large plantation sectors, and may also be applied to other sectors that employ migrant workers or have commercial enterprises in hard to reach areas.

Active case detection for malaria elimination: a survey among Asia Pacific countries.

BACKGROUND: Moving from malaria control to elimination requires national malaria control programmes to implement strategies to detect both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases in the community. In order to do this, malaria elimination programmes follow up malaria cases reported by health facilities to carry out case investigations that will determine the origin of the infection, whether it has been imported or is due to local malaria transmission. If necessary, the malaria programme will also carry out active surveillance to find additional malaria cases in the locality to prevent further transmission. To understand current practices and share information on malaria elimination strategies, a survey specifically addressing country policies on case investigation and reactive case detection was carried out among fourteen countries of the Asia Pacific Malaria Elimination Network (APMEN). METHODS: A questionnaire was distributed to the malaria control programme managers amongst 14 countries in the Asia Pacific who have national or sub-national malaria elimination goals. RESULTS: Results indicate that there are a wide variety of case investigation and active case detection activities employed by the 13 countries that responded to the survey. All respondents report conducting case investigation as part of surveillance activities. More than half of these countries conduct investigations for each case. Over half aim to accomplish the investigation within one to two days of a case report. Programmes collect a broad array of demographic data during investigation procedures and definitions for imported cases are varied across respondents. Some countries report intra-national (from a different province or district) importation while others report only international importation (from a different country). Reactive case detection in respondent countries is defined as screening households within a pre-determined radius in order to identify other locally acquired infections, whether symptomatic or asymptomatic. Respondents report that reactive case detection can be triggered in different ways, in some cases with only a single case report and in others if a defined threshold of multiple cases occurs. The spatial range of screening conducted varies from a certain number of households to an entire administrative unit (e g, village). Some countries target symptomatic people whereas others target all people in order to detect asymptomatic infections. The majority of respondent programmes collect a range of information from those screened for malaria, similar to the range of information collected during case investigation. CONCLUSION: Case investigation and reactive case detection are implemented in the malaria elimination programmes in the Asia Pacific, however practices vary widely from country to country. There is little evidence available to support countries in deciding which methods to maintain, change or adopt for improved effectiveness and efficiency. The development and use of common evaluation metrics for these activities will allow malaria programmes to assess performance and results of resource-intensive surveillance measures and may benefit other countries that are considering implementing these activities.

Determinants of malaria program expenditures during elimination: case study evidence from select provinces in the Philippines.

...Even though eliminating malaria from the endemic margins is a part of the Global Malaria Action Plan, little guidance exists on what resources are needed to transition from controlling malaria to eliminating it. Using Philippines as an example, this study aimed to (1) estimate the financial resources used by sub-national malaria programs in different phases during elimination and (2) understand how different environmental and organizational factors may influence expenditure levels and spending proportions. The Philippines provides an opportunity to study variations in sub-national programs because its epidemiological and ecological diversity, devolved health system, and progressive elimination strategy all allow greater flexibility for lower-level governments to direct activities, but also create challenges for coordination and resource mobilization. Through key informant interviews and archival record retrieval in four selected provinces chosen based on eco-epidemiological variation, expenditures associated with provincial malaria programs were collected for selected years (mid-1990s to 2010). Results show that expenditures per person at risk per year decrease as programs progress from a state of controlled low-endemic malaria to elimination to prevention of reintroduction regardless of whether elimination was deliberately planned. However, wide variation across provinces were found: expenditures were generally higher if mainly financed with donor grants, but were moderated by the level of economic development, the level of malaria transmission and receptivity, and the capacity of program staff. Across all provinces, strong leadership appears to be a necessary condition for maintaining progress and is vital in controlling outbreaks. While sampled provinces and years may not be representative of other sub-national malaria programs, these findings suggest that the marginal yearly cost declines with each phase during elimination.

Malaria control and elimination in Sri Lanka: documenting progress and success factors in a conflict setting.

BACKGROUND: Sri Lanka has a long history of malaria control, and over the past decade has had dramatic declines in cases amid a national conflict. A case study of Sri Lanka's malaria programme was conducted to characterize the programme and explain recent progress. METHODS: The case study employed qualitative and quantitative methods. Data were collected from published and grey literature, district-level and national records, and thirty-three key informant interviews. Expenditures in two districts for two years--2004 and 2009--were compiled. FINDINGS: Malaria incidence in Sri Lanka has declined by 99.9% since 1999. During this time, there were increases in the proportion of malaria infections due to Plasmodium vivax, and the proportion of infections occurring in adult males. Indoor residual spraying and distribution of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets have likely contributed to the low transmission. Entomological surveillance was maintained. A strong passive case detection system captures infections and active case detection was introduced. When comparing conflict and non-conflict districts, vector control and surveillance measures were maintained in conflict areas, often with higher coverage reported in conflict districts. One of two districts in the study reported a 48% decline in malaria programme expenditure per person at risk from 2004 to 2009. The other district had stable malaria spending. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Malaria is now at low levels in Sri Lanka--124 indigenous cases were found in 2011. The majority of infections occur in adult males and are due to P. vivax. Evidence-driven policy and an ability to adapt to new circumstances contributed to this decline. Malaria interventions were maintained in the conflict districts despite an ongoing war. Sri Lanka has set a goal of eliminating malaria by the end of 2014. Early identification and treatment of infections, especially imported ones, together with effective surveillance and response, will be critical to achieving this goal.